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forecast system

Catalogue: GRDC Updates
The Bureau of Meteorology has recently moved from a statistics-based to a physics -based (dynamical) model for its seasonal climate outlooks... The Bureau of Meteorology first issued seasonal climate outlooks in 1989... Before the Bureau of Meteorology would switch to the new dynamical seasonal outlook the new system had to demonstrate not just skill and reliability, but also a clear improvement over the old service (see Figure 1)...
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Catalogue: GRDC Updates
The El Ni o/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains the dominant source of climate variability and seasonal forecasting capability relevant for north-east Australia... The study shows that both sets of forecasts show widespread forecast skill in excess of climatology (ie better than the use of long-term average rainfall or temperature climatological statistics, but that the Bureau's forecasts perform better in the west of the country (Western Australia) and the Queensland SOI-phase forecasts performing better in the centre and east of Australia, including the northern cropping region (Fawcett and Stone, 2010)... Climate forecasts available for the northern cropping region, such as those based on or similar to the 'SOI-phase system', have been demonstrated to provide significant and relatively high skill when verification tests have been applied to assess all those forecasts in real-time over the past 10 years...
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Catalogue: GRDC Final Reports
The forecast is providing a real hedge against climate change if the number of good years declines... The break-even time for using a POAMA forecast was calculated... The value of having a frost forecast for wheat in south-west WA was investigated at three locations with rainfall ranging from medium to high...
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Catalogue: GRDC Final Reports
Current farming systems expose farmers to heavy losses during good seasons when the risk of crop failure is low and returns could be maximised by additional levels of N... The SOI phases, originally developed in Queensland, can be used to identify a set of past years of similar climatic characteristics (analogue years) to the present season... Seasonal climate forecasting is a crucial tool for growers to micro-adjust and governments to macro-adjust economic strategies and policies to reduce impacts on private, estate and national economic objectives...
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