The assessment will involve comparing past POAMA forecasts with the historical record and improving our understanding of how the frequency of these events changes with large scale drivers of atmosphere and ocean circulation such as ENSO, the IOD, blocking, and SAM. We will work with farmers, their advisers, and extension providers to incorporate forecasts of the likelihood of frost and heat events into their risk management... We will assess the utility of forecast information at seasonal time scales and outline strategies to manage temperature extremes... The tests would also be carried out in the seasonal forecast model, POAMA. We would assess if, when, and where (across the grain regions), POAMA has skill in forecasting changed likelihoods of cold and heat extremes on seasonal time scales of relevance to the sowing decision...
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seasonal time scale
Catalogue: GRDC 2014 Research SummariesRelated categories: