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seasonal forecast

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Catalogue: GRDC 2014 Research Summaries
Much of the uncertainty comes from the variable nature of our climate, whether the enterprise is grazing, cropping, horticulture or bee keeping... Long term data and recent weather data along with seasonal forecasts are valuable in informing growers of system status (e.g. soil water, heat sum, radiation) and probabilities of future events (e.g. planting opportunities, seasonal rainfall, extremes in temperature)... The current version of Australian CliMate has the following analyses: How Often, How Hot -Cold, Season "s progress, How wet N, How likely, How "s El Nino and How "s the Past The aim of this project is:- to maintain the code, data access and server support; - improve security of data access from Silo;- add the POAMA seasonal forecast capability from BOM;- add a Potential..
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Catalogue: Ground Cover
In western Queensland, seasonal forecasts have moderate accuracy but rainfall from storms is very difficult to predict... New forecasting systems are based on general circulation models (GCMs), and Dr Stone's initial assessment has looked at the past six to seven years of forecasts... "Current weekly forecasts can completely change my thinking around operational decisions, such as for a winter crop whether we apply top-up fertiliser and whether we would try to harvest before a rainfall event...
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Catalogue: GRDC Factsheets
Climate and weather forecasting continue to improve as the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) develops and refines new technology and modelling... The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is a measure calculated from sea level pressure differences between Tahiti and Darwin, and indicates El Ni o or La Ni a intensity... Planned upgrades will soon offer improvement in several areas...
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Catalogue: GRDC Factsheets
Climate and weather forecasting continue to improve as the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) develops and refines new technology and modelling... The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is a measure calculated from sea level pressure differences between Tahiti and Darwin, and indicates El Ni o or La Ni a intensity... Planned upgrades will soon offer improvement in several areas...
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Catalogue: GRDC Factsheets
Climate and weather forecasting continue to improve as the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) develops and refines new technology and modelling... The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is a measure calculated from sea level pressure differences between Tahiti and Darwin, and indicates El Ni o or La Ni a intensity... Planned upgrades will soon offer improvement in several areas...
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Catalogue: GRDC Factsheets
Climate and weather forecasting continue to improve as the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) develops and refines new technology and modelling... The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is a measure calculated from sea level pressure differences between Tahiti and Darwin, and indicates El Ni o or La Ni a intensity... Planned upgrades will soon offer improvement in several areas...
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Catalogue: GRDC Final Reports
The forecast is providing a real hedge against climate change if the number of good years declines... The break-even time for using a POAMA forecast was calculated... The value of having a frost forecast for wheat in south-west WA was investigated at three locations with rainfall ranging from medium to high...
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Catalogue: GRDC Updates (West)
Forecasts made at this time of year have varying degrees of skill and we advise users to consult the seasonal forecasts as they are updated monthly and the skill improves closer to the season... Verification of the 2011 SSF forecasts In terms of the 2011 seasonal forecasts the SSF gave a drier outlook to that which generally eventuated early in the season, but successfully forecast a wetter outlook for spring which assisted farmers with fertiliser decisions mid-year... AIMS The aim of this paper is to review the main climate indicators in 2011, and what is shaping in 2012...
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Catalogue: GRDC Final Reports
In the study, a two-tiered approach was adopted to provide better long-lead seasonal forecasts for Australian grain growers... The Extreme Event Information System developed in this project needs to be further refined to enable it to indicate serious droughts such as those that developed in 2006 and 2007... Forecasting systems need to list their forecasts from the past few years prior to the crop season so farmers can assess whether they can use them with confidence...
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Catalogue: GRDC 2014 Research Summaries
Seasonal climate forecasts hold the promise of better farm management in the face of Australia "s variable climate... , the project will try and quantify the Spayoff time for the use of a seasonal forecast: how many years should a farmer use a forecast in order to have a high probability of a better outcome than if no forecast were used The value of POAMA forecasts will be assessed against the baseline of not using a forecast, and against using a simple SOI-based forecast where applicable... To aid harvest, chemical defoliants are used to remove leaves, and this process works better at warmer temperatures...
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