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forecast model

Catalogue: GRDC Updates
The El Ni o/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains the dominant source of climate variability and seasonal forecasting capability relevant for north-east Australia... The study shows that both sets of forecasts show widespread forecast skill in excess of climatology (ie better than the use of long-term average rainfall or temperature climatological statistics, but that the Bureau's forecasts perform better in the west of the country (Western Australia) and the Queensland SOI-phase forecasts performing better in the centre and east of Australia, including the northern cropping region (Fawcett and Stone, 2010)... Climate forecasts available for the northern cropping region, such as those based on or similar to the 'SOI-phase system', have been demonstrated to provide significant and relatively high skill when verification tests have been applied to assess all those forecasts in real-time over the past 10 years...
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Catalogue: GRDC Final Reports
In the study, a two-tiered approach was adopted to provide better long-lead seasonal forecasts for Australian grain growers... The Extreme Event Information System developed in this project needs to be further refined to enable it to indicate serious droughts such as those that developed in 2006 and 2007... Forecasting systems need to list their forecasts from the past few years prior to the crop season so farmers can assess whether they can use them with confidence...
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