You are here
Home » GRDC Updates » Principles of short and medium term climate forecasting - whats driving our climate and how accurate have Northern Grains Region forecasts been in the last decade?
Principles of short and medium term climate forecasting - whats driving our climate and how accurate have Northern Grains Region forecasts been in the last decade?
Plain text source:
The El Ni o/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains the dominant source of climate variability and seasonal forecasting capability relevant for north-east Australia... The study shows that both sets of forecasts show widespread forecast skill in excess of climatology (ie better than the use of long-term average rainfall or temperature climatological statistics, but that the Bureau's forecasts perform better in the west of the country (Western Australia) and the Queensland SOI-phase forecasts performing better in the centre and east of Australia, including the northern cropping region (Fawcett and Stone, 2010)... Climate forecasts available for the northern cropping region, such as those based on or similar to the 'SOI-phase system', have been demonstrated to provide significant and relatively high skill when verification tests have been applied to assess all those forecasts in real-time over the past 10 years...